Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 14.180445 16.191248 18.348279 20.829857 23.601415 26.596916 30.074726
2025-08-31 11.069850 13.781713 16.910198 20.768188 25.378530 30.690967 37.254189
2025-09-07 9.514857 12.524803 16.162124 20.847672 26.686256 33.681806 42.653474
2025-09-14 8.545996 11.820357 15.942519 21.458595 28.584650 37.411968 49.096100
2025-09-21 7.485804 10.830049 15.198585 21.246494 29.313040 39.601418 53.598598
2025-09-28 6.361414 9.615569 14.021262 20.322914 28.987011 40.346084 56.202461
2025-10-05 5.927713 9.298357 14.001191 20.913475 30.658933 43.728045 62.358400
2025-10-12 5.502883 8.942566 13.880757 21.327476 32.076051 46.796590 68.192002
2025-10-19 4.977828 8.381014 13.407936 21.183342 32.668668 48.724663 72.505144
2025-10-26 4.502654 7.846471 12.923576 20.970347 33.121359 50.442030 76.555866
2025-11-02 4.143540 7.458710 12.623981 20.998488 33.905046 52.635575 81.338899
2025-11-09 3.850384 7.149029 12.416248 21.141181 34.847924 55.075757 86.546984
2025-11-16 3.533418 6.777008 12.090670 21.090503 35.511200 57.161562 91.371573
2025-11-23 3.224209 6.389248 11.708884 20.920437 35.971630 58.953997 95.823833
2025-11-30 3.001566 6.131512 11.518541 21.038718 36.874875 61.431204 101.371966
2025-12-07 2.881974 6.049835 11.618957 21.640608 38.576523 65.196611 109.019678
2025-12-14 2.641628 5.718666 11.258693 21.431827 38.928932 66.847478 113.424778
2025-12-21 2.317176 5.193119 10.511267 20.499486 38.016465 66.433292 114.540400
2025-12-28 2.238755 5.146339 10.628762 21.095150 39.710561 70.270690 122.550862
2026-01-04 2.141331 5.051533 10.648638 21.512084 41.109270 73.667614 129.953098
2026-01-11 1.980594 4.809584 10.371763 21.366933 41.513913 75.427654 134.733185
2026-01-18 1.825507 4.564208 10.069283 21.152289 41.777711 76.950421 139.157888
2026-01-25 1.710312 4.394539 9.902452 21.180654 42.471987 79.216197 144.881019